Forecasting Climate Change
Aligned to HS-ESS3-5 — Next Generation Science Standards.
What this lesson teaches
Scientists forecast climate change by combining measured data with computer climate models. The models use physics to project how temperature, sea level, and precipitation will respond to rising greenhouse gases under different scenarios.
Worked examples
Example 1
Direct measurements show atmospheric carbon dioxide rose from about 315 ppm in 1958 to over 420 ppm today, and global temperature climbed alongside it. Models fed these trends project roughly 2 to 4 degrees Celsius of warming this century if emissions stay high.
Example 2
The Keeling curve wobbles every year as northern forests leaf out and drop leaves — the planet breathing, on top of the rise.
Example 3
Models are tested against the past before they are trusted on the future. One that cannot reproduce the last century is not used to project the next.
Practice questions
- Observe: Carbon dioxide and global temperature have both risen steadily since the 1950s. What does that paired trend allow scientists to forecast?
- Model: Sketch a graph of carbon dioxide versus year and extend the line to predict a future value based on the current rate.
- Explain: Two model runs assume high versus low future emissions and predict different warming. Explain why the forecasts differ and what that means for planning.
Watch the lesson
Every lesson comes with a video taught in English and Spanish — the same video the QR code in the printed workbook opens.
▶ Watch this lessonEn español
Pronosticar el cambio climático
Los científicos pronostican el cambio climático combinando datos medidos con modelos climáticos de computadora. Los modelos usan la física para proyectar cómo responderán la temperatura, el nivel del mar y la precipitación al aumento de los gases de efecto invernadero en distintos escenarios.
Ejemplo 1: Las mediciones directas muestran que el dióxido de carbono atmosférico subió de unas 315 ppm en 1958 a más de 420 ppm hoy, y la temperatura global subió junto con él. Los modelos alimentados con estas tendencias proyectan un calentamiento de aproximadamente 2 a 4 grados Celsius este siglo si las emisiones siguen altas.
Ejemplo 2: La curva de Keeling oscila cada año conforme los bosques del norte echan y tiran hojas — el planeta respirando, encima del ascenso.
Ejemplo 3: Los modelos se prueban contra el pasado antes de confiar en ellos para el futuro. Uno que no puede reproducir el siglo pasado no se usa para proyectar el siguiente.
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